Accountability
Forecast accuracy
A forecast is only worth as much as its track record. Every AIOWeather forecast is archived and graded, and the scores are public. Warnings become credible only when calm days remain calm.
The forecast record
Reading an accuracy record
- Why a high hit rate proves nothing: four ways to reach 90% without being useful, and the calibration questions to ask instead.
- Why a high accuracy score can be worthless: base rate, selection and ungradable wording, and what to check on any record, including this one.
- What a forecast accuracy score cannot prove: three ways a hit rate rises without a single forecast improving.