2026-10-15
Advisorypending- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Partial System Degradation; Google: Gemini 4 Argon added to Gemini app and AI Mode for paid subscribers
- Outcome
- Pending
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-15 report
2026-10-11
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Partial System Degradation; Anthropic: 1 open incident: Elevated errors on platform.claude.com
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-11 report
2026-10-10
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Partial System Degradation; Anthropic: 1 open incident: Elevated errors on platform.claude.com
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-10 report
2026-10-07
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Elevated errors on platform.claude.com; Anthropic: Claude Haiku 5.5 released
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-07 report
2026-10-06
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Elevated errors for Claude Opus 5.5; Google: Google Cloud Gemini at Work 2026 (2026-10-08)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-06 report
2026-10-05
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Partial System Degradation; Other: World Summit AI 2026, Amsterdam (Oct 7-8) (2026-10-07)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-05 report
2026-10-04
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: MCP Dev Summit Toronto (Oct 5-6) (2026-10-05); Other: World Summit AI 2026, Amsterdam (Oct 7-8) (2026-10-07)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-04 report
2026-10-03
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: ChatGPT adds virtual try-on and product Favorites to shopping; Perplexity: Perplexity launches Decisions API
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-03 report
2026-10-02
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: Google announces Gemini 4 Argon; Google: Google introduces skills in the Gemini app, replacing Gems
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-02 report
2026-10-01
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Partial System Degradation; OpenAI: OpenAI DevDay 2026: always-on 'dots' agents in ChatGPT
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-10-01 report
2026-09-29
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Partial System Degradation; OpenAI: OpenAI DevDay 2026: GPT-6.1 Sol, plugin extensions, Ultrafast tier
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-29 report
2026-09-18
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI pilots Sponsored Agents in ChatGPT with Wayfair and Angi
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-18 report
2026-09-17
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: Google pilots paying publishers for content used in AI answers; Other: Cloudflare launches Disallow AI Training and Accountable crawler designation
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-17 report
2026-09-15
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: Apple ships iOS 27 with Siri AI behind a waitlist; Other: Cloudflare AI crawler blocking defaults take effect (2026-09-15)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-15 report
2026-09-14
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Degraded functionality for Claude Cowork on Windows; Other: iOS 27 release with Gemini-built Siri AI (2026-09-14)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-14 report
2026-09-13
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Degraded functionality for Claude Cowork on Windows; Other: iOS 27 ships with Gemini-trained Siri AI (2026-09-14)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-13 report
2026-09-12
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Degraded functionality for Claude Cowork on Windows; Google: Merchant Center adds AI Search intent, terms and attributes
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-12 report
2026-09-11
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Degraded functionality for Claude Cowork on Windows; Google: Gemini desktop app launches on Windows
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-11 report
2026-09-10
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Partial System Degradation; Other: Meta launches Muse personal AI agent
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-10 report
2026-09-09
Stablecorrect- Forecast
- Stable forecast
- Evidence at the time
- No material AI-discovery changes detected in the last 7 days; platforms operating normally.
- Outcome
- Stayed calm as forecast
- Explanation
- Issued as Stable; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-09 report
2026-09-08
Stablecorrect- Forecast
- Stable forecast
- Evidence at the time
- No material AI-discovery changes detected in the last 7 days; platforms operating normally.
- Outcome
- Stayed calm as forecast
- Explanation
- Issued as Stable; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-08 report
2026-09-07
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: Apple event, September 9 (2026-09-09); Other: Brand mentions and cited URLs diverge across AI engines
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-07 report
2026-09-06
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra; Google: Google begins removing Google Assistant, Gemini becomes the assistant on Android
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-06 report
2026-09-05
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra; Other: ChatGPT, Claude and Grok down in simultaneous outage
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-05 report
2026-09-04
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: AI Mode citations drop on Gemini 3.8 Flash, Google calls it a bug; OpenAI: OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra in limited preview
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-04 report
2026-09-03
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: Gemini 3.8 Flash live in Search AI Mode; Anthropic: Claude commerce agent blueprints released
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-03 report
2026-09-02
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: Search Console generative AI reports and AI opt-out control go global; Google: Google Ads begins auto-upgrading broad match and ACA campaigns to AI Max
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-09-02 report
2026-08-31
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI retires the official DALL·E GPT in ChatGPT; Google: Google Ads begins auto-upgrading Search campaigns to AI Max (2026-09-01)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-31 report
2026-08-30
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: AI Overviews now expand fully by default on some queries; Google: Google Search indexing and serving disruption
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-30 report
2026-08-29
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: AI Mode adds flight tracking, points pricing and hotel booking; OpenAI: ChatGPT Ads expanding to India
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-29 report
2026-08-28
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI publishes report on the Hugging Face incident; OpenAI: Official DALL·E GPT retired from ChatGPT (2026-08-30)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-28 report
2026-08-27
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI retires the official DALL·E GPT in ChatGPT (2026-08-30); OpenAI: Reddit's share of ChatGPT Search citations fell 86% in four days
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-27 report
2026-08-23
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: ChatGPT plugin discovery and time awareness updated; OpenAI: o3 retired from ChatGPT (2026-08-26)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-23 report
2026-08-22
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: August 2026 spam update finishes rolling out; OpenAI: ChatGPT Ads launch in 31 European markets (2026-08-24)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-22 report
2026-08-21
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: ChatGPT Ads announced for 31 European markets; Anthropic: Computer use, Skills API and Files API generally available
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-21 report
2026-08-20
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: August 2026 spam update begins rolling out; Google: Google pauses AI-generated images in AI Overviews
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-20 report
2026-08-17
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Microsoft: Deep Research retired in consumer Copilot (2026-08-18); Other: Shopify: AI referrals up 197% year over year
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-17 report
2026-08-16
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: Anthropic details Claude text watermarking; Microsoft: Deep Research, Podcasts and Group chat retire from consumer Copilot app (2026-08-18)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-16 report
2026-08-15
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: Gemini 3.7 Flash rolling out in Google Search AI Mode; Other: Scrunch study: AI chats drive 1.1% of news publisher visits
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-15 report
2026-08-14
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: Claude in Chrome side panel becomes a full Cowork session; Google: Made by Google 2026 adds camera-first Circle to Search and Rambler voice input
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-14 report
2026-08-13
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: Made by Google 2026 extends Gemini into camera and voice entry points; Anthropic: Claude Code auto mode becomes the default for Pro, Max and Team (2026-08-14)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-13 report
2026-08-11
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: Anthropic to make Claude Code auto mode the default; Google: Made by Google event, Pixel 11 and Gemini features (2026-08-12)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-11 report
2026-08-10
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Unlimited chats and Think button reach Free and Go tiers (2026-08-10); Google: Made by Google event (2026-08-12)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-10 report
2026-08-09
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: ChatGPT Atlas browser shuts down permanently (2026-08-09); Google: Made by Google 2026 keynote (2026-08-12)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-09 report
2026-08-08
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: GPT-5.6 Luna becomes the default for Free and Go users; Anthropic: Claude Fable 5 biology safeguards loosened to cut false positives
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-08 report
2026-08-07
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: ChatGPT Atlas browser stops working (2026-08-09); OpenAI: Product carousel ad format appears in ChatGPT
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-07 report
2026-08-06
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Google: Google Assistant shutdown dated for September 4; OpenAI: ChatGPT Atlas browser stops working (2026-08-09)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-06 report
2026-08-05
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Degraded performance of multiple models; Google: Similarweb data: AI answers now in 43% of Google searches
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-05 report
2026-08-04
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: EU AI Act Article 50 transparency obligations become applicable; Other: Ai4 2026 conference, Las Vegas, 4 to 6 August (2026-08-04)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-04 report
2026-08-03
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: EU AI Act transparency obligations start being enforced; Other: Ai4 2026 conference, Las Vegas, August 4 to 6 (2026-08-04)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-03 report
2026-08-02
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: EU AI Act Article 50 transparency rules start applying (2026-08-02); Google: Similarweb data: AI Overviews now on 43% of searches
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-02 report
2026-08-01
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: SynthID watermarking added to GPT-Live audio; Other: EU AI Act Article 50 transparency obligations apply (2026-08-02)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-08-01 report
2026-07-31
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI cuts GPT-5.6 Luna and Terra API prices; Google: Search Console Platform properties now globally available
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-31 report
2026-07-30
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: MCP 2026-07-28 specification finalized; OpenAI: Sign in with ChatGPT enters beta on partner sites
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-30 report
2026-07-29
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Other: MCP 2026-07-28 specification released
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-29 report
2026-07-28
Watchdirectional- Forecast
- Watch forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Microsoft: Microsoft FY2026 Q4 earnings call (2026-07-29)
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Watch; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-28 report
2026-07-27
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Elevated errors on Claude Opus 5; OpenAI: Global OpenAI outage hits ChatGPT, API and Codex
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-27 report
2026-07-26
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: Anthropic releases Claude Opus 5; OpenAI: ChatGPT, API and Codex hit by roughly 50-minute outage
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-26 report
2026-07-25
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- Anthropic: 1 open incident: Elevated errors for Claude Fable 5, Claude Sonnet 5, Claude Haiku 4.5, and other models; OpenAI: ChatGPT Health opens to all US adult users
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-25 report
2026-07-24
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: Self-serve ChatGPT Ads Manager opens publicly; Google: AI Overviews and AI Mode launch in France
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-24 report
2026-07-23
Advisorydirectional- Forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence at the time
- OpenAI: OpenAI launches Presence for enterprise agents; Google: Google ships Gemini 3.6 Flash, no 3.5 Pro
- Outcome
- Directionally correct
- Explanation
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.
- Report
- Open 2026-07-23 report
