Archived report
2026-07-26: Advisory
- Original forecast
- Advisory forecast
- Evidence available at the time
- Anthropic: Anthropic releases Claude Opus 5; OpenAI: ChatGPT, API and Codex hit by roughly 50-minute outage
- Later outcome
- Directionally correct
- Forecast grade
- directional
- What changed afterward
- Issued as Advisory; grading after the window closes.